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In the centuries following Christopher Columbus’s 1492 voyage to the Americas, transoceanic travel opened unprecedented pathways in global pathogen circulation. Yet no biological transfer is a single, discrete event. We use mathematical modeling to quantify historical risk of shipborne pathogen introduction, exploring the respective contributions of journey time, ship size, population susceptibility, transmission intensity, density dependence, and pathogen biology. We contextualize our results using port arrivals data from San Francisco, 1850 to 1852, and from a selection of historically significant voyages, 1492 to 1918. We offer numerical estimates of introduction risk across historically realistic ranges of journey time and ship population size, and show that both steam travel and shipping regimes that involved frequent, large-scale movement of people substantially increased risk of transoceanic pathogen circulation. 

BackgroundSerology (the detection of antibodies formed by the host against an infecting pathogen) is frequently used to assess current infections and past exposure to specific pathogens. However, the presence of cross-reactivity among host antibodies in serological data makes it challenging to interpret the patterns and draw reliable conclusions about the infecting pathogen or strain. Methodology/Principal findingsIn our study, we use microscopic agglutination test (MAT) serological data from three host species [California sea lion (Zalophus californianus), island fox (Urocyon littoralis), and island spotted skunk (Spilogale gracilis)] with confirmed infections to assess differences in cross-reactivity by host species and diagnostic laboratory. All host species are known to be infected with the same serovar ofLeptospira interrogans. We find that absolute and relative antibody titer magnitudes vary systematically across host species and diagnostic laboratories. Despite being infected by the sameLeptospiraserovar, three host species exhibit different cross-reactivity profiles to a 5-serovar diagnostic panel. We also observe that the cross-reactive antibody titer against a non-infecting serovar can remain detectable after the antibody titer against the infecting serovar declines below detectable levels. Conclusions/SignificanceCross-reactivity in serological data makes interpretation difficult and can lead to common pitfalls. Our results show that the highest antibody titer is not a reliable indicator of infecting serovar and highlight an intriguing role of host species in shaping reactivity patterns. On the other side, seronegativity against a given serovar does not rule out that serovar as the cause of infection. We show that titer magnitudes can be influenced by both host species and diagnostic laboratory, indicating that efforts to interpret absolute titers (e.g., as indicators of recent infection) must be calibrated to the system under study. Thus, we implore scientists and health officials using serological data for surveillance to interpret the data with caution. 

Researchers and clinicians often rely on molecular assays like PCR to identify and monitor viral infections, instead of the resource-prohibitive gold standard of viral culture. However, it remains unclear when (if ever) PCR measurements of viral load are reliable indicators of replicating or infectious virus. The recent popularity of PCR protocols targeting subgenomic RNA for SARS-CoV-2 has caused further confusion, as the relationships between subgenomic RNA and standard total RNA assays are incompletely characterized and opinions differ on which RNA type better predicts culture outcomes. Here, we explore these issues by comparing total RNA, subgenomic RNA, and viral culture results from 24 studies of SARS-CoV-2 in non-human primates (including 2167 samples from 174 individuals) using custom-developed Bayesian statistical models. On out-of-sample data, our best models predict subgenomic RNA positivity from total RNA data with 91% accuracy, and they predict culture positivity with 85% accuracy. Further analyses of individual time series indicate that many apparent prediction errors may arise from issues with assay sensitivity or sample processing, suggesting true accuracy may be higher than these estimates. Total RNA and subgenomic RNA showed equivalent performance as predictors of culture positivity. Multiple cofactors (including exposure conditions, host traits, and assay protocols) influence culture predictions, yielding insights into biological and methodological sources of variation in assay outcomes–and indicating that no single threshold value applies across study designs. We also show that our model can accurately predict when an individual is no longer infectious, illustrating the potential for future models trained on human data to guide clinical decisions on case isolation. Our work shows that meta-analysis ofin vivodata can overcome longstanding challenges arising from limited sample sizes and can yield robust insights beyond those attainable from individual studies. Our analytical pipeline offers a framework to develop similar predictive tools in other virus-host systems, including models trained on human data, which could support laboratory analyses, medical decisions, and public health guidelines. 

Abstract BackgroundPathogenicLeptospiraspecies are globally important zoonotic pathogens capable of infecting a wide range of host species. In marine mammals, reports ofLeptospirahave predominantly been in pinnipeds, with isolated reports of infections in cetaceans. Case presentationOn 28 June 2021, a 150.5 cm long female, short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis delphis) stranded alive on the coast of southern California and subsequently died. Gross necropsy revealed multifocal cortical pallor within the reniculi of the kidney, and lymphoplasmacytic tubulointerstitial nephritis was observed histologically. Immunohistochemistry confirmedLeptospirainfection, and PCR followed bylfb1gene amplicon sequencing suggested that the infecting organism wasL.kirschneri. LeptospiraDNA capture and enrichment allowed for whole-genome sequencing to be conducted. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed the causative agent was a previously undescribed, divergent lineage ofL.kirschneri. ConclusionsWe report the first detection of pathogenicLeptospirain a short-beaked common dolphin, and the first detection in any cetacean in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Renal lesions were consistent with leptospirosis in other host species, including marine mammals, and were the most significant lesions detected overall, suggesting leptospirosis as the likely cause of death. We identified the cause of the infection asL.kirschneri, a species detected only once before in a marine mammal – a northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) of the northeastern Pacific. These findings raise questions about the mechanism of transmission, given the obligate marine lifestyle of cetaceans (in contrast to pinnipeds, which spend time on land) and the commonly accepted view thatLeptospiraare quickly killed by salt water. They also raise important questions regarding the source of infection, and whether it arose from transmission among marine mammals or from terrestrial-to-marine spillover. Moving forward, surveillance and sampling must be expanded to better understand the extent to whichLeptospirainfections occur in the marine ecosystem and possible epidemiological linkages between and among marine and terrestrial host species. GeneratingLeptospiragenomes from different host species will yield crucial information about possible transmission links, and our study highlights the power of new techniques such as DNA enrichment to illuminate the complex ecology of this important zoonotic pathogen. 

Seasonal epidemics and sporadic pandemics of influenza cause a large public health burden. Although influenza viruses disseminate through the environment in respiratory secretions expelled from infected individuals, they can also be transmitted by contaminated surfaces where virus-laden expulsions can be deposited.